Donald Trump's and Vladimir Putin's last week's phone call last reignited discussions about a possible ceasefire in Russia's war against Ukraine. Could a ceasefire finally happen? Is there a light at the end of the tunnel? The answer to this was an obvious no and no. This was never about peace or even a ceasefire.

Putin is so terrified that his military parade on 9 May will be rained on by Ukrainian drones and possibly even missiles that he ran to Trump, complaining about Ukraine, and manoeuvred him into fronting a ceasefire request on the parade day. And then according to Zelenskyy Trump went and forgot to discuss any ceasefire with Ukraine.

Having failed to secure Ukraine's compliance via Trump, Russia unilaterally declared ceasefire from 8–9 May, threatening Ukraine with hell, retribution, annihilation — the usual. The Russian Defence Ministry even threatened European embassies in Kyiv, telling them to evacuate before the 9th of May. Ukraine answered by unilaterally declaring a regime of silence starting at midnight on the night of 5–6 May, which Russia promptly ignored. Consequently, Ukraine can now disregard Russian ceasefire.

So why is the parade so important and what does it symbolise?

A Parade in Want of Protection

The Kremlin's fear of Ukrainian disruption on the 9th of May festivities is hardly irrational. Ukraine has recently increased its attacks on Russian oil processing and export hubs. Additionally, at the end of February, Ukraine hit a missile assembly factory in Votkinsk some 1,400km from Ukraine using its FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile. It can hit Moscow – even if all missiles were shot down, the debris alone would wreak havoc for days. Even if Ukraine does not attack Moscow on the day of the parade, Moscow knows it has the means to do it; the fear and uncertainty alone are enough to set the Kremlin's nerves on edge.

Most of Russia's available air defence has already been redeployed around Moscow, leaving many oil processing plants open to Ukrainian long-range sanctions — Ukraine's own term for strikes that achieve what international sanctions have not. However, no air defence can guarantee complete safety.

As a result, Russia must either cancel its parade or secure Ukraine's agreement to the parade via other means.

Russia has already downsized the parade considerably. All military equipment has been excluded, although the planes might still be on the agenda. Cadets and other military students will be absent this year as well.

We should remember that the last few military parades held in Moscow have been equally thin and vulnerable. The downsizing started in 2022, when the flyover was cancelled at the last moment. Bad weather was cited. It was sunny that day in Moscow. At the time, Ukraine had no weapons that could reach Moscow. So why did they cancel the flyover? They feared their own. The short military operation Putin had planned did not go as expected. People were still allowed to grumble a bit. And the first reports of serious casualties were coming in. The leadership was seriously scared its own military could take revenge.

This fear materialised a year later in Prigozhin's march to Moscow on 24 June 2023. When the Kremlin dropped Prigozhin's plane two months later, the window of opportunity for any violent revolt closed. Everybody who had reasons and means to harm the leadership was at the front. And fear of their return is one of the reasons Putin is not finishing the war. Having allowed convicted murderers and rapists into the army to bolster recruitment figures and then mistreated them and allowed them to mistreat each other, the Kremlin lost any claim on their future allegiance.

Since then, the equipment portion of the parade has dwindled every year in line with meagre reserves, and most years saw no foreign dignitaries. Except for the parade of 2025, which marked 80 years since the end of WWII, and was attended by Xi Jinping, Aleksandar Vučić, and Nicolas Maduro, among others. Xi's presence in particular ensured that Ukraine would not gate-crash — open warfare with China has never been in Ukraine's interests.

This year there are no live hostages for Putin to hide behind. Although Slovak PM Fico attempted to arrange safe passage to Moscow, the Baltic states declared: he shall not pass. Reports suggest Fico intends to travel to Moscow via Belarus by train to lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and meet with Putin, though he has said he will not participate in the parade.

The Myth, the Lies, and the Long Con

Most countries have a special day they celebrate — independence day. The three Baltic states even have two of them — the day of independence and the day independence was restored following the end of the Russian occupation. Russia does not have an independence day — it has no one to be independent from. Many countries do celebrate their independence from Russia, however.

During Soviet times, there were two days that were treated as sacred — the 9th of May, or Victory Day, and the 7th of November, which celebrated the communist coup of 1917. After the fall of the USSR, the communist coup ceased to be a happy memory, and only the 9th of May remained.

The reason Russia has always celebrated the end of WWII on the 9th of May, rather than the 8th like the rest of the world, has to do with Joseph Stalin. When the first capitulation of Nazi Germany was signed on the 7th of May 1945 in Reims, the representative of the Soviet Union signed it without having full authorisation from the 'dear leader'. The documents were signed for the second time on the 8th of May in Berlin. However, by the time the signing ceremony was finished, it was already past midnight in Moscow. Additionally, Stalin wanted to stress the importance of the USSR, so the Soviets uncoupled their Victory Day from everybody else's.

There was also another reason. While the rest of the world commemorated a war that lasted six years, the war the Soviets fought lasted only four — from 1941 to 1945. During the first two years of the war, from 1939 to 1941, Soviet Russia was allied with Hitler. In 1941, just over a month before the invasion of the USSR, Nazi officers were honoured guests at the May Day parade on Red Square.

It is worth noting that WWII started in September 1939, when Germany invaded Poland from the West and the Soviets invaded from the East. The USSR's war was different from everyone else's, and therefore so was its Victory Day. Additionally, while for the rest of Europe WWII ended in 1945, for Eastern European countries occupied by Soviet Russia it only ended nearly half a century later.

A Trump in the Pocket

Although the current parade has already been cut to the bone, it is still supposed to be a symbol of Russia's reach and ability to 'crush enemies' (or as it is - neighbours). Being throttled on this day in front of all and sundry would put a serious damper on the narrative of almighty Russia winning its war against tiny Ukraine that the locals are supposed to follow.

Additionally, the image of the strongman that Putin presents to his subjects depends on the visibility of that strength. Should anything unexpected happen on the 9th of May, that will expose the myth that Putin has built around him — the Russian ruler who 'raised Russia from its knees'. If Russia cannot protect Moscow on its most important day, then what did the million or so dead soldiers die for in Ukraine?

All in all, the fact that Putin is scrambling to find anybody capable of reining in Ukraine is rather ironic when we consider that four years ago on the 9th of May in 2022, Ukraine was seriously expecting to be hit by a nuclear missile in retaliation for having defeated Russia under Kyiv.

It is quite remarkable how the situation has turned around. Last year, Zelenskyy trolled the Kremlin, announcing that Ukraine could not ensure the security of the Victory Day parade in Moscow. This year, Ukraine's capability alone is enough to send Putin whining to Trump and even Europe as a last resort.

While Ukraine, having countered the Kremlin's bogus ceasefire with its own, now has its hands untied and ready to either strike Moscow at will or simply troll it mercilessly and watch it squirm.