Writing & commentary
The politics behind the headlines.
Essays on Russia, Eastern Europe and European security. Published in Persuasion; weekly in Liminal Lines.
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Middle East
Will Iran Get Its Bucket List?
The US and Iran are about to sign an agreement on an agreement. Iran's wishlist is almost complete, while US interests are notably absent.
16 June 20266 min read
Russia
The Real Message Behind Ukraine's Offer to Negotiate
Ukraine keeps inviting Russia to talk. The message is not that it expects Russia to come to its senses, and it is not addressed to whom you might think.
5 June 20267 min read
European Security
Washington and 5000 Virtual Troops
Troops withdrawn, troops returned, nothing changed. What the virtual movement of 5,000 American soldiers says about Washington's real agenda in Europe.
22 May 20265 min read
Russia
A Short Course in Russian Diplomacy
Demand, threaten, receive, and then do it anyway. Russia has produced a closed-loop demonstration of what its diplomacy actually is.
16 May 20264 min read
Russia
Public Humiliation Can Be Fatal for Aging Dictators
Zelenskyy authorised Russia's parade, and the Kremlin had to accept. In a system where authority derives from the appearance of strength, this bell cannot be unrung.
12 May 202611 min read
Russia
Russia Needs Ukraine's Permission to Hold a Military Parade
Putin is so afraid of Ukrainian drones over Red Square that he ran to Trump. Why the 9 May parade matters so much, and what it no longer symbolises.
6 May 20268 min read
Middle East
The Parting of the Ways Across the Arab World
The war in Iran has claimed its first institutional victim: OPEC. The UAE's exit is only the first step in a realignment across the Arab world.
30 April 20266 min read
Russia
Don't Watch the Russian Economy. Watch the Repressions.
Economic collapse in Russia will not arrive as protest or regime fracture. In a totalitarian state, the real signal of systemic fracture is escalating repression.
23 April 20268 min read
Global Economy
Have Markets Decided to Ride Out the Oil Crisis of 2026?
Spot prices follow the tweets; futures hold a pre-determined course. What oil markets are quietly telling us about the direction of the US-Iran war.
20 April 20265 min read
European Security
At Least the Pope Is Fine This Time
Russia has now poured money into three European elections and lost all three. What Hungary's result says about the fortunes of Europe's far right.
12 April 20264 min read
Analysis
Two Nuclear Panics, One Playbook
Two nuclear scares three years apart, spread by two very different men, following exactly the same script. The parallels are striking.
9 April 20264 min read
Liminal Lines
A weekly essay on the politics behind the headlines. Written for people who make decisions, not for people who collect takes.
